All Ords Longterm Trends in 2008
This is a look at the Australian All Ordinaries stockmarket index. As the index dropped 377.2 today, Mark Pesce wondered if there was a long term trendline available. Here it is.
21 January 2008
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looking at right now :)
looking at right now :)
This is beautiful and should be plastered on the front page of tomorrow's AFR!
Kind of you to say Mark, hopefully Yahoo won't mind providing the background image
I've already embedded it into my personal blog http://hyperpeople.livejournal.com/
Blogged it myself : http://adogsbreakfast.wordpress.com/2008/01/22/asx-market-crash-january-2008/
sorry but what does it mean?
@me - I'm drawing long term trend lines over the actual All Ords graph. This shows where the All Ords actually is compared to what the long term trend (sort of an average) would predict.
As you can see since 2005 the All Ords has left the predicted band a long way behind, so big falls in the stockmarket (like the past few days) are to be expected, and as the graph shows we can expect further falls in the All Ords to bring it back into line with the long term trends.
I extrapolated into the future over on this page:
All Ords Longterm Trends 2008 - 2013 on Skitch.com by @the-adb
From where I sit now (at the end of 2011) this has turned out to be a reasonable predictor of events over the subsequent three years. Will it continue?